For a quantum startup, the "valley of death" isn't just a metaphor; it's a decade-long desert. Crossing it requires more than groundbreaking science. It requires a Go-to-Market (GTM) strategy that can generate traction, build partnerships, and demonstrate value long before fault-tolerant computers arrive.
Yet, most GTM plans we see are built on a dangerous assumption: that a market for their technology will simply materialize when the science is "ready." This is a recipe for failure. A realistic strategy must be pressure-tested against the harsh realities of a market that barely exists—a process we call "market embryogenesis."
If you are a founder building a plan or an investor assessing one, you need to ask some brutal questions. Answering them honestly is the first step toward building a venture that can survive the journey.
Question 1: "Who is Your 'Customer Zero' and What is the Specific Problem You Are Solving for Them Today?"
It's easy to say you're targeting "drug discovery." It's much harder to name the specific pharma company you're working with, the exact molecular simulation they can't perform classically, and how your noisy, intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computer can provide them with valuable, albeit imperfect, insights today.
- The Danger: Without a "Customer Zero"—a paid, deeply engaged co-development partner—you are building in a vacuum. You are assuming what the market needs. This leads to developing a technology that, while scientifically interesting, has no commercial application and no one willing to pay for it.
- The Gap in Your Diligence: A GTM plan without a named Customer Zero is not a plan; it's a hypothesis. You risk funding a venture that will never find its product-market fit.
Question 2: "What is Your Roadmap to Commercial Quantum Advantage, Not Just Technical Advantage?"
"Quantum Advantage" is the point where a quantum computer solves a problem better, faster, or cheaper than the best classical computer. But that's a technical definition. The commercial definition is the one that matters: the point where the advantage is significant enough for a customer to justify the high cost and complexity of switching.
- The Danger: A team that can only articulate their path to technical advantage is focused on a scientific milestone, not a business outcome. They may achieve their goal, publish a paper, and still have a product that no one will buy because it's only 5% better but 100x harder to use.
- The Gap in Your Diligence: You need a framework to evaluate whether the proposed "advantage" will actually translate into revenue, or if it's just a new form of academic bragging rights.
Question 3: "What is Your Business Model for the Next Five Years, Not Just the Next Fifteen?"
The dream of a universal, fault-tolerant quantum computer is powerful, but it's more than a decade away. A venture that only has a business model for that future state will run out of cash long before it gets there. Survival depends on generating value and, ideally, revenue during the messy NISQ era.
- The Danger: Will the company offer high-cost consulting services to co-develop algorithms? Will they sell cloud access to their noisy processors for research purposes? Will they license parts of their software stack? A lack of a clear, near-term business model shows a failure to plan for the journey, focusing only on the destination.
- The Gap in Your Diligence: Assessing a fifteen-year vision is important, but assessing a five-year plan for survival is critical. Without it, the long-term vision is irrelevant.
Conclusion
A Go-to-Market strategy built on hope is doomed. Real-world traction in the quantum space requires answering these brutal questions with brutal honesty. It demands a plan grounded not in future possibilities, but in the tangible, value-creating steps you can take today.
Building or assessing such a plan requires structure. The ad-hoc approach is simply too risky.
To help you pressure-test your strategy against a comprehensive framework, we invite you to download our complimentary resource.
Download "The Quantum Diligence Checklist" now.
This checklist provides the structured questions needed to rigorously evaluate a venture's commercial viability, technical roadmap, competitive positioning, and more. Use it to ensure your Go-to-Market strategy is built not on hope, but on a foundation for sustainable growth.
